Status checked at 10:03 CEST on 12 September 2026: the National Hurricane Center (NHC) season archive listed five named tropical storms in the Atlantic, and none had reached hurricane strength. That is a notably quiet start, but it does not mean the risk has disappeared or that the season is over.
Five storms but no hurricane: what is the difference?
A tropical storm is named when its maximum sustained winds reach at least 63 km/h. It becomes a hurricane at 119 km/h. A system can therefore organise enough to receive a name, then weaken before crossing the hurricane threshold.
This tally describes what had happened by the stated time; it is not a forecast. The official Atlantic season runs from 1 June to 30 November, and September is normally within its most active period.
Warm water is fuel, not the whole engine
Warm seas encourage evaporation and provide energy, but tropical cyclone development requires several ingredients to coincide: moist air, a pre-existing disturbance, enough rotation away from the equator and an atmosphere that allows thunderstorms to remain vertically aligned.
Vertical wind shear—a change in wind speed or direction with height—can tilt and separate that structure. Thunderstorms are displaced from the circulation centre, making it difficult for the system to concentrate heat and lower its pressure. The sea can be very warm while the atmosphere remains hostile to intensification.
El Niño’s role in 2026
NOAA’s seasonal outlook gave a 55% probability of a below-normal season, with 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes and 1–3 major hurricanes. A key factor was the expected development of a strong El Niño, which tends to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and inhibit cyclone organisation.
Those ranges do not predict tracks and do not guarantee the final count. They describe the most likely total activity before the season begins. One powerful landfalling cyclone can still make a statistically quiet season severe for a particular community.
What does this mean for Europe?
This basin-wide status is not a warning for Spain or any other European country. Some Atlantic cyclones curve northward and later transition into extratropical lows, but impacts depend on each system’s track and evolution. Local decisions should always be based on national meteorological and civil-protection warnings.
If a cyclone approaches a coast, wind is not the only hazard. Low pressure and wind stress can raise sea level; our guide to storm surge explains the mechanism and why it differs from the astronomical tide.
What to watch next
- The NHC two- and seven-day outlooks, which identify areas with development potential, not guaranteed tracks.
- Official advisories once a depression or storm exists, including position, intensity and the cone of uncertainty.
- National and local warnings, which translate a weather system into specific risks for each place.
The accurate conclusion is not “there will be no hurricanes in 2026”, but “none of the five named systems had become a hurricane by the cut-off time”. Atmospheric conditions, particularly El Niño-related shear, have hindered organisation, yet part of the season remains.